Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Sen. Clinton Talks Economics at Simpson College

by Emily Schettler and Ali Jepsen

In a speech on November 3rd at Simpson College, Senator Hillary Clinton presented her goals for the United States, focusing on the middle class and the state of our economy. Clinton provided a wealth of facts and figures to support several attacks on President Bush’s economic record. Here we try to help the audience sort through these claims to see what was accurate and what was not.

“Right now, insurance companies have free reign to cherry pick the healthiest patients and shut out everyone who seems like a 'bad risk.' In fact, they spend $50 billion a year on elaborate underwriting calculations and schemes to figure out how not to cover people or that not to pay you for what you do once you’ve delivered the service.”

In researching this statistic, we have been unable to find any credible information supporting or refuting Clinton’s claim. We have contacted Clinton’s campaign several times asking where they got this statistic, but our calls were not returned.

Lesson: Clinton’s basic claims are accurate, but one is slightly exaggerated, and her campaign has provided no information to support another. The larger question is whether voters will buy the idea that she can replicate her husband’s economic record.


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Gov. Richardson is Right on U.S. Obesity Issue

by Katherine Hanson and Kayte Hennick

On September 19, 2007, Governor Bill Richardson made the following statement to the Obesity Society,

“As we all know, the prevalence of obesity in this country has skyrocketed in recent years. Nearly 200 million Americans- two thirds of our population – are now considered overweight or obese. The effects of this disease are not cosmetic. Millions of Americans are suffering from the effects of obesity-related illnesses. We spend at least $97 billion per year on health care needs to combat obesity.”
Was his information on Americans’ health status correct, or was he just pandering to his audience?

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Obama and the Iraq War: Consistent Opposition?

by Nick Vilmain and Andy Hansen

During a speech in Chicago on October 2nd, 2007, Senator Barack Obama made the following statement about his consistent opposition to the Iraq War:

“In this campaign, we’ve seen who has leadership to lead the country during difficult times—I did not only oppose the war but laid out reasons that turned out to be prescient over time, and I think that says something about my judgment.”

Obama has made the Iraq War a major tenet of his campaign because he sees other Democratic candidates are vulnerable on the issue. Is he being truthful in framing his position on the war?

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Friday, November 16, 2007

Clinton Overly Optimistic on Alternative Energy

by Desiree Jackson and Brittany McLean

Hillary Clinton claimed on October 8, 2007 that she would create a $50 billion Strategic Energy Fund that would help create millions of new jobs and rebuild the economic prosperity of the 1990s. Clinton was doing a six-city, two-day bus tour through Iowa on the “Middle Class Express” when she discussed the future of alternative energy. What do energy experts have to say about job prospects in this industry?

“under her Strategic Energy Fund plan, oil companies could choose to invest in alternative energy, or pay a portion of their earnings into the government fund. The fund would pay for tax incentives for homeowners and businesses that make their houses and offices more energy efficient. Investment in alternative energy will help create new, well-paying jobs in the United States.”
According to an AP report by Mike Glover, Senator Clinton claimed:

"It will unleash a wave of innovation, create millions of new jobs, enhance our security and lead the world to a revolution in how we produce and use energy."
Claim: The $50 billion Strategic Energy Fund would help create millions of new jobs.

According to USA Today,

The Apollo Alliance, a coalition of labor unions and environmental advocates, is advocating a $300 billion, 10-year public-private program to create ‘clean energy’ industries. They project the program would create 3.3 million new jobs and free the United States from imported oil. Is that a realistic goal? Economist John Urbanchuck of the consulting firm LECG LLC desciribes it as a ‘laudable’ objective that would require some new technological breakthroughs and may not be
politically achievable.”
It appears that creating millions of new jobs in alternative energy, given the smaller amount of investment Clinton is calling for, is a bit of a stretch.

From the same article,

“Urbanchuck, whose specialties are agriculture and renewable fuels, estimates the ethanol industry currently employs only about 5,000 and is directly responsible for about another 100,000 jobs in associated fields such as transportation. Biodiesel employs even fewer people. He estimates 1,500 are directly employed in manufacturing another 25,000 in associated jobs. Wind and solar energy, meanwhile, are produced passively and require very few maintenance employees. Jobs in those fields involve mostly manufacturing windmills and solar panels. The United States has about 20,000 windmills that produce electricity.”
The total number of jobs in alternative energy today number less than 200,000. This makes Clinton’s claim of creating a million of jobs a “long shot.”

Lesson: New technology would be needed for the alternative energy industry to support millions of new jobs. Even with the new emphasis on alternative energy and greater funding, the field employs less than 200,000 people to date. Creating a million new jobs may not be feasible.

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Giuliani's Tax Cut Claims Basically Accurate

by Chris Richert and Casey Johnson

For weeks Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have been fighting over who is the more fiscally conservative. These arguments seem to stem from a debate in Michigan on October 9th when the former Mayor and the Governor entered into a battle of statistics. During this conversation, Mayor Giuliani touted the fact that he had reduced taxes:

“I brought taxes [in New York City] down 17 percent…”

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Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Mitt Romney: Consistent Gun Rights Advocate?

by Emily Schettler and Ali Jepsen

Has Mitt Romney been consistent on the issue of gun control? This fact check takes a look…

In an interview with Townhall.com, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney spoke about gun control and the 2nd Amendment in the wake of the Virginia Tech tragedy.

“I realize people will always take the occasion of a major news event to push their own agenda. There are people in the country who fundamentally believe that people in our country should not be allowed to have guns. They’re wrong. The Second Amendment protects the rights of individual citizens to bear arms or protect themselves, and I will defend the Second Amendment. I think efforts to politicize this tragedy are mistaken and misdirected...we’ve gotta fundamentally recognize the need to protect the right to bear arms and the fact that there are people who are trying to remove that right inch by inch, and we’re gonna have to defend against that.”
However, Mitt Romney has not always held this position. In 1994 when he was running for the U.S. Senate, Romney supported the Brady Bill and a ban on assault-style weapons. These measures for gun control were opposed by gun owners and high-visibility gun rights groups like the NRA. Romney maintained this stance on the issue when he became governor of Massachusetts in 2002.

As governor, he took measures to tighten gun laws by making it difficult to obtain a weapon. In one gubernatorial debate, he announced his strong convictions on guns:

"We do have tough gun laws in Massachusetts; I support them….I won't chip away at them; I believe they protect us and provide for our safety."
In 2004, he helped permanently ban “assault weapons” in Massachusetts when it became apparent that national laws would become more lax.

In 2005, Romney refused to pardon a military man, Anthony Circosta, who had been charged with a felony firearm offense for shooting a friend with a BB gun when he was thirteen. Romney claimed that he did not want to overturn a jury decision, but a spokesman for Romney’s campaign, Eric Fehrnstrom, also said a pardon was not given because Circosta was charged with “felony assault and battery with a dangerous weapon.” Circosta requested a pardon to obtain a license to carry so he could become a police officer in his hometown.

In June of this year, Fehrnstrom reiterated:

“Our executive clemency guidelines discouraged pardons for felony firearm offenses if the purpose of the pardon was to obtain a license to carry.”
Considering Romney’s current support for gun rights, it seems odd that Romney would not pardon a man for misusing a BB gun as a thirteen-year-old.

Since beginning his presidential run, Romney’s views on gun control seem to have shifted. While he still supports the banning of all assault weapons, he now refuses to take a position on the Brady Bill – a bill he stood behind in his 1994 Senate bid. In that same campaign, he was quoted as saying, “I don’t line up with the NRA.” In August of 2006, Romney applied for membership to the NRA and now claims to be a “lifelong member” (a top membership “level” in the group).

Lesson: Voters on either side of the gun control issue should take care in examining Romney’s current stance on the issue. In this presidential nomination race, Romney has contradicted some of his prior views and aligned himself with the gun rights lobby, a core constituency in the Republican Party base.

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Romney Promises Spending Cuts, "Likes Vetoes"

by Katherine Hanson and Kayte Hennick

At The Mackinack Republican Leadership Conference on September 22, 2007, Governor Mitt Romney made the following statement:

“If I am elected President, I will cap non-military discretionary spending at inflation minus one percent. If I get appropriations above that amount, I will veto them. And I like vetoes. I’ve vetoed hundreds of items already. Let’s put some fresh ink in the Presidential veto pen.”
How credible is this promise? Let’s look at the context.

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Brownback Flubs in Use of Gay Marriage Stats

By Blair Boyd and David Albrecht

Is there a relationship between gay marriage laws and out-of-wedlock births? Senator Sam Brownback says yes. Further research brings his claim into question.

“… the marriage rates in those [nations] have plummeted to where you have ounties now in northern Europe where 80 percent of the first-born children are born out of wedlock.”

This was not the first time that Senator Brownback had used this statistic. His remarks on the U.S. Senate floor in June 2006 contained the same argument, including the exact same statistic.

“You have counties in Norway where over 80 percent of the first-born children are born out of wedlock and two-thirds of the second children are. The institution no longer means much of anything. It is defined away.”

Senator Brownback is citing a specific county in Norway, a nation that he claims has redefined marriage. In the quote at the Republican Presidential Primary Debate, he instead uses the phrase “counties in northern Europe,” making the claim more broad, instead of one specific county in a particular nation.

Senator Brownback also uses the idea “redefined” when speaking about nations in northern Europe where births out of wedlock have increased. Yet, the county from which this favored statistic (the “80 percent” increase) comes is in Norway, a country where same sex marriage is actually illegal. Norway has accepted the idea of civil unions, which are registered partnerships. However, individuals joined in civil unions are not defined as part of a same-sex marriage. Brownback’s “redefined” terminology implies that Norway has changed the law to accept same sex marriage.

So is it the case that there is a relationship between definitions of marriage and out-of-wedlock births? The evidence for this claim is less than clear. A discussion of the research on this question can be found in the Washington Post’s Fact Checker column here. The basic finding is this: out-of-wedlock births have increased in places like Holland, for example, that have recently moved to accept domestic partnerships. But other nations that made the same move at the same time (Sweden and Denmark, for example) have seen no increase in the rate of out-of-wedlock births. In fact, rates of out-of-wedlock births in Europe began to rise before contemporary debates in these nations about same sex marriage.

Lesson: Senator Brownback took a limited statistic and generalized it to a larger population of Europeans. His choice of words communicated the idea that the increase in out-of-wedlock births is prevalent in northern Europe, when in fact it is not. Brownback’s key statistic, one he used repeatedly, comes from a nation where civil unions (but not same-sex marriages) are legal.

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Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Medicare Drugs: Be Wary of Cost Estimates

by Desiree Jackson and Brittany McLean

Thomas Beaumont, a reporter from the Des Moines Register, wrote an article on Oct. 2, 2007, describing Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson’s opinion on the costs of the Medicare prescription drug benefit. In his article, Beaumont reported that,

“Thompson referred to a recent report by the U.S Social Security and Medicare Trustees that showed an estimated shortfall of $72 trillion in the nation’s entitlement programs. According to the report, $61 trillion of that involves Medicare spending. In May, the Bush administration projected that the prescription drug program would cost $734 billion over the next 10 years, billions less than previously estimated.”
The issue with this statement is that the reporter says that the prescription drug program, now costing “$734 billion over the next 10 years, would cost billions less than previously estimated.” [italics added]

The fact is that this program is now costing hundreds of billions more than previously estimated. This bill’s projected cost has continuously increased throughout the past four years.

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"Straight Talk" and Sen. Clinton's 2002 Iraq Vote

by Kedron Bardwell and POSC 255

In the Yahoo! News Election ’08 Democratic Candidate Mashup, an online debate, moderator Bill Maher asked Senator Hillary Clinton a question about the 2002 Iraq resolution:

“Senator Clinton, all the senators here, except Senator Obama, voted for the Iraq resolution in 2002, saying that their decision was based on intelligence that they believed to be accurate at the time. In other words, George Bush fooled you. Why should Americans vote for someone who can be fooled by George Bush?"

Clinton replied:

“Well, Bill, it was a little more complicated than that. I sought out expert opinions from a wide variety of sources. People inside and outside the government, people in my husband's administration. And I think it is fair to say that, at the time, I made it very clear I was against a pre-emptive war. And I believed that giving the president authority to go back to the United Nations and put in inspectors was an appropriate designation of authority. That is not what we have seen him do, and I've said that had I known then what I know now, obviously, I would never have voted to give [President Bush] the authority.” [italics added]

There is plenty of room for confusion here. Clinton’s use of the word “authority” seems to refer to two different types of presidential power. If the first use of the word only meant authority to go back to the U.N., then it would be odd for Clinton to say she “would never have voted” to give Bush that authority. Few Senators opposed that step. In fact, the word “authority” is probably not the right word to use here; Bush did not need Congress’ approval to go to the U.N. -- all presidents have the inherent power to do so. In this context, the meaning of Clinton’s second use of the term becomes clearer. The 2002 Iraq resolution did more than give the President a mandate to work with the U.N. It set guidelines for the possible use of military force. What follows is an in-depth look at the resolution to cut through confusion about the vote.


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