Sen. Clinton Talks Economics at Simpson College

by Emily Schettler and Ali Jepsen

In a speech on November 3rd at Simpson College, Senator Hillary Clinton presented her goals for the United States, focusing on the middle class and the state of our economy. Clinton provided a wealth of facts and figures to support several attacks on President Bush’s economic record. Here we try to help the audience sort through these claims to see what was accurate and what was not.

According to our research, Clinton was on target in talking about our current economy. She made the claim that the general public’s income has dropped $1,000 dollars in the last six years. Looking at the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent report, we found this fact to be fairly accurate.

Clinton provided more disheartening statistics with the claim that the nation is experiencing its greatest income disparity since 1929. This seems to be true based on an article in The New York Times Business section, which cited the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.

Clinton also noted the lack of job growth during Bush’s presidency. She stated that during Bill Clinton’s administration, a total of 22 million were created by 2000. This statistic is accurate, based on U.S. Department of Labor data listed on a Democratic web site. During Bush’s presidency, approximately 3.8 million jobs have been created, compared with 20 million jobs during Bill Clinton’s time in office. This puts President Clinton’s job growth rate at 2.6 percent and Bush’s growth rate at .5 percent.

Of course, whether Hillary Clinton would be able to replicate her husband’s success in job creation and economic grown is uncertain.

Clinton’s most surprising claim of the night came during a lengthy discussion of education reform. She stated that America has one dropout every 29 seconds. This translates to about 2,880 dropouts per day, a grand total of 1,051,200 dropouts per year. The term “dropout” is somewhat ambiguous. Clinton did not specify whether she meant the dropouts were high school students, in college, or a combination of the two. When Clinton has discussed dropout rates in the past, she has discussed it in the context of secondary, not postsecondary education, and this is the most common usage of the term.

As such, Clinton’s claim of 1,051,200 dropouts per year seems high. The National Center for Education Statistics lists the number of secondary public school students at 14,338,000. Clinton’s projection of one dropout every 29 seconds would give the U.S. a dropout rate of seven percent. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the dropout rate for America stands at five percent. In this case, Clinton’s projection is higher than the actual dropout rate.

Finally, Clinton stated, as she has frequently during this campaign, that insurance companies spend tens of billions of dollars each year to avoid providing health care for patients. The exact quote from a similar Clinton speech at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center reads:

“Right now, insurance companies have free reign to cherry pick the healthiest patients and shut out everyone who seems like a 'bad risk.' In fact, they spend $50 billion a year on elaborate underwriting calculations and schemes to figure out how not to cover people or that not to pay you for what you do once you’ve delivered the service.”

In researching this statistic, we have been unable to find any credible information supporting or refuting Clinton’s claim. We have contacted Clinton’s campaign several times asking where they got this statistic, but our calls were not returned.

Lesson: Clinton’s basic claims are accurate, but one is slightly exaggerated, and her campaign has provided no information to support another. The larger question is whether voters will buy the idea that she can replicate her husband’s economic record.